Israel Faces Coalition Showdown as Neither Netanyahu Nor Eisenkot Reaches a Majority

Israel's political future remained uncertain on Wednesday after it emerged that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had lost his governing majority in Tuesday's election. His fate now appears to hinge on whether opposition Jewish parties will join forces with Palestinian parties, whose support rose sharply.

Gadi Eisenkot, a retired general who leads the Jewish opposition bloc, seemed to rule out such a broad alliance when he declared victory overnight for what he called a "Zionist majority". That declaration looked premature. Early exit poll projections had given his bloc a narrow lead, but as counting went on, Netanyahu's bloc edged ahead, with the votes of deployed soldiers and other absentee ballots still outstanding.

With 70% of votes counted, neither Jewish bloc appeared likely to reach the 61 Knesset seats needed to govern. Arab Israeli parties were heading for a record result of 16 to 19 seats. That leaves Eisenkot and his allies with a clear choice: strike a pact with those parties, or give Netanyahu a political lifeline through new elections or a unity government.

US President Donald Trump claimed credit for Netanyahu's better than expected showing. "When the endorsement went out, it helped him a lot," Trump said, adding that the outcome seemed headed for either a stalemate or a Netanyahu win.

Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, a junior partner in Eisenkot's Change bloc, urged negotiations with the two Palestinian parties, the Joint List and Ra'am (the United Arab List). "Anyone who tries to erase the votes of Arab citizens is surrendering to Netanyahu and giving up on Israel," he wrote on X. He noted that Netanyahu himself relies on ultra-Orthodox parties that are non-Zionist and oppose conscription for their constituents. Noa Landau, writing in Haaretz, argued that by making Zionism the test for a coalition, Eisenkot had fallen "into the trap Netanyahu laid for him."

Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen said his party's strong showing meant it "can't be ignored under any political scenario". He said the Netanyahu government, especially national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, "has made life bitter for every Arab citizen", and that his party was ready to help remove the government of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. Another Joint List official framed the opposition's choice as "supremacy or building democracy".

Counting could take several more days, with absentee ballots tallied last. Most come from deployed soldiers, a group that usually leans right, though the presence of many older, more moderate reservists on active duty may complicate that pattern. Once the count is final, President Isaac Herzog will give one party leader six weeks to form a government, and if that fails the chance passes to the rival. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot are expected to try to lure defectors from the other side.

Netanyahu would stay on as caretaker prime minister until a new majority emerges, and he might benefit from another election. Tens of thousands of diaspora Israelis who returned to vote, mostly against the governing coalition, may not do so again. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 amid earlier deadlock.

The vote was widely seen as a referendum on the 77-year-old Netanyahu, with turnout of 77.7%, the highest since 1999. The campaign unfolded as Israel faces accusations of genocide in Gaza and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank, and as Netanyahu is wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes. He is also on trial in a long-running corruption case. Since the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023, Israel has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians in Gaza, fought Hezbollah in Lebanon, occupied new territory in Syria and launched a war with the US against Iran.