Model Favors Oregon Over Northwestern as Week 9 Brings More Top-10 Upset Chances

College football's Week 8 was less chaotic than the week before, but it still knocked three more top-10 teams out of the rankings picture. BYU, Ole Miss and Texas Tech all lost, and the Week 9 odds are now out as fans look for the next round of upsets.

Cincinnati handed Texas Tech its defeat and can now try for back-to-back surprises when it hosts No. 6 Utah on Saturday, Oct. 31. The Utes are 6.5-point road favorites. Other notable lines include No. 13 Texas Tech as a 3.5-point favorite over No. 22 Arizona, No. 3 Georgia against No. 17 Florida, and USC as a 6.5-point underdog against No. 2 Ohio State.

SportsLine's computer model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, has produced a projected score for each Week 9 matchup. It enters the week with a 68-59 record on its top-rated picks, a run that has returned nearly $400.

One of its projections has Oregon, a 3.5-point favorite, beating Northwestern 30-22. The model says Oregon covers the spread 61% of the time, while the over on the 47.5-point total hits 60% of the time.

The situation is a tense one for the Ducks. They already have three losses, and they fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer after a 21-10 loss to Illinois last week that was another poor offensive showing.

Northwestern arrives on a four-game winning streak, but the schedule behind it is soft. The wins came against Ball State, Michigan State, Rutgers and Penn State, and the three Big Ten teams among those have just one conference win between them. In its only true road game against quality opposition, Northwestern lost to Indiana by a touchdown.

The model also backs several underdogs to win outright this week, though the full list of picks is available only through SportsLine.

Several games come before Saturday. Wednesday, Oct. 28, features Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee, with Middle Tennessee favored by 2.5, and Jacksonville State at New Mexico State, where New Mexico State is a 3.5-point underdog. On Thursday, Oct. 29, FAU visits North Texas, a 13.5-point favorite, and Troy visits James Madison, a 21-point favorite.

Friday, Oct. 30, brings Tulane at Charlotte, Baylor at UCF and Kent State at Sacramento State. Saturday's slate also includes Notre Dame at Navy, Auburn at Ole Miss, South Carolina at Oklahoma, Clemson at Florida State, Miami at North Carolina and Mississippi State at Texas. Notre Dame is a 30.5-point favorite over Navy, and Texas is favored by 20.5 over Mississippi State. All odds come from FanDuel and are subject to change.