Israelis Cast Ballots as No Bloc Secures Majority Threshold

Israelis vote on Tuesday in the first national legislative election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in the Gaza Strip. Approximately 7.3 million citizens are eligible to cast ballots, including 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. The outcome will determine the leadership of a government managing multiple conflicts and internal divisions.

Two primary coalitions compete for the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. The pro-Netanyahu bloc includes Likud, United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposing alliance comprises Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Together alliance, which includes Yair Lapid. A 3.25 percent threshold allows parties to enter parliament.

The final polls before a publication ban took effect on Friday indicated that neither side would reach the necessary majority. A KAN survey projected 52 seats for the opposition and 50 for Netanyahu's group. The remaining seats would go to unaffiliated parties, such as Ra'am and the Joint List. Both major blocs have stated they will not partner with Arab-led parties at this time, increasing the likelihood of a minority government or a repeat election.

Voters face high personal stakes for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has held the office for more than 15 of the last 17 years. He faces corruption charges and scrutiny over security failures preceding the 2023 attacks. A defeat could complicate his ongoing trial and his status under an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes.

Domestic pressure centers on accountability for security lapses and the military exemption of the ultra-Orthodox community. Critics also oppose Netanyahu's judicial reform efforts. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, stated that secular and liberal factions view this vote as a final opportunity to preserve Israel's democratic structure.

International standing influences the campaign as several allies have sanctioned West Bank settlements. Dozens of envoys walked out of Netanyahu's September 24 UN General Assembly address. The Supreme Court recently reversed a Central Elections Committee decision that barred Ra'am and the Joint List, though it forced Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh out of the race over his characterization of the October 7 attacks.

Netanyahu argues his rivals will partner with Arab parties, a position challenged by Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh. Mansour suggests the strategy aims to keep Netanyahu in a caretaker role if no bloc wins a majority. Meanwhile, three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem remain without a vote in the government controlling their borders and legal status.