Gulf States Draft Multipart Peace Plan to Prevent Renewed US-Iran War

Gulf states are working on a multipart peace plan intended to prevent what they see as a disastrous return to war between Iran and the United States. Two elements sit at the center of the effort: reopening the strait of Hormuz within four days of sanctions being lifted, and a withdrawal of substantial Houthi forces inside Yemen.

Washington is aware of how the talks are progressing but is holding out for a concession. European powers suggest that concession could involve Iran allowing UN weapons inspectors to return to the country.

The British foreign secretary, Ed Miliband, pressed the case for readmitting inspectors when he met Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, in New York. So far Iran has refused, saying it will only hold talks in principle on its nuclear programme. European diplomats believe that letting inspectors visit Iran's bombed nuclear sites is a minimum requirement for a breakthrough with President Donald Trump.

Iran, for its part, is concentrating on the guarantees of sanctions relief it would receive in exchange for reopening the strait. Dr Ali Bagheri, deputy secretary of Iran's national security council, said Tehran was willing to shorten its earlier proposal, under which the strait would reopen seven days after economic sanctions were lifted, to four days.

There are also signs of flexibility on Yemen. Iran appears to be starting to acknowledge a mediating role in the parallel conflict there. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the supreme national security council, met the Houthi ambassador to Iran, Ibrahim al-Dulaimi, on Tuesday. That meeting came 24 hours after a high-level delegation from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan travelled to Tehran to discuss Saudi terms for ending the Yemen conflict and a longer-term security architecture for the region.

Iran backs the Houthis and can influence them, including by shaping proposals that fall short of a Houthi military victory, which many say is unobtainable. The Houthis, in turn, are demanding that Saudi Arabia lift what it regards as a naval and air blockade of Houthi-held territory.

At the meeting with the Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani delegates, Iran successfully kept its nuclear programme off the agenda. It steered the discussion toward a long-term regional security vision that would include the Gulf states and Iran and would reduce or end the US presence in the Middle East. A new non-aggression pact ending Iran's ostracism by the rest of the Gulf, in place since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, would meet Iran's highest strategic goal. A commitment to it from six Gulf states might also make it easier for Iran to accept difficult tactical concessions on its nuclear programme.

Oman's foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, a key advocate of the inclusive security plan, said he believed the US administration understood this was the direction the region is heading. He said that if Iran is fully re-engaged in the idea of all eight countries being at peace with the rest of the world, "the economic potential is going to be enormous for all of us in the region and those outside the region who choose to take part in this development." He added that there was "general acceptance that this will be the direction of travel once we have a deal in place."

Araghchi also stressed the importance of a postwar security pact at a televised event in Iran this week. "Recently, there has been talk of a new war but I am already thinking about the postwar period," he said. "Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same."