Democrats Lead National Polls Six Days Before US Midterms as Key Senate Races Stay Tight

With six days left before the November 3 midterm elections in the United States, Democrats hold a national polling lead over Republicans, though several pivotal Senate contests are still too close to call.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted from October 22 to 26 found 47 percent of voters backing Democrats and 36 percent backing Republicans. When the leanings of undecided voters were factored in, the gap was 50 percent to 41 percent. President Donald Trump's approval rating rose by a percentage point to 32 percent, while 73 percent of US adults said the cost of living was heading in the wrong direction.

Texas is among the tightest battlegrounds. Democrats have not won a Senate race there since 1988, yet Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are virtually tied in the polls. Trump addressed two rallies in the state on Tuesday in support of Paxton. Al Jazeera's Phil Lavelle, reporting from Corpus Christi, noted that this was Trump's fourth visit in seven weeks, twice as many as at the same point before the 2024 election. "Perhaps shows just how concerned Republicans are," he said. Lavelle added that local analysis suggests more Republicans than Democrats have voted early, but Talarico has been courting Republicans unhappy with Trump.

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are locked in a close Senate race. In Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, Republican incumbent Roger Marshall faces a tight challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton. Both Trump and Vice President JD Vance have travelled to the state. The Associated Press reported that the parties and allied groups have committed about $71m to advertising there, the most expensive Senate contest in Kansas history.

At the Corpus Christi rally, Trump pointed to a tanker he said carried one million barrels of Venezuelan oil and called it a win for his administration. He also floated the idea of making Venezuela the 51st US state. The administration signed an oil deal with Venezuela's interim leader, Delcy Rodriguez, after a January military operation in which President Nicolas Maduro was abducted. Trump also said he plans to roll back Biden-era limits on methane emissions from oil and gas production, arguing it would lower energy prices. Fuel costs have become a major election issue as the US-Israel war on Iran continues. Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined Trump in Texas for a rare campaign appearance.

Elsewhere, Alaska Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski has endorsed Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for governor over Bernadette Wilson, the candidate Trump backs.

On Wednesday, Trump travels to Chillicothe, Ohio, for his third rally in the state this month, scheduled for 23:00 GMT. Republican Senator Jon Husted, who took Vance's former seat, faces Sherrod Brown, the former Democratic senator who lost his seat in 2024. Axios reported more than $400m had been spent or reserved on advertising in that race as of October 8. Republicans are especially worried about Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Iowa, where a few percentage points for a third party could decide the result. Trump is due in Iowa on Sunday.

Vance will campaign in Kinston, North Carolina, at 16:30 GMT for Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley, who faces former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper. In Georgia, former President Barack Obama will appear in Atlanta at 20:00 GMT with Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, who is running against Republican Mike Collins, and gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, who faces Republican Rick Jackson. Former Vice President Kamala Harris begins a three-day Georgia visit the same day, with early in-person voting ending Friday, October 30. Trump won Georgia in 2024.

Marquette Law School is also set to release its latest Wisconsin statewide poll at 18:15 GMT on Wednesday, covering voters' views on inflation, tariffs, the war on Iran and Trump's presidency.