Israel Election Exit Polls Show Dead Heat Between Netanyahu and Eisenkot Blocs

Exit polls from Israel's parliamentary election show a neck-and-neck contest between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main rival, former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, with neither side clearly positioned to secure a governing majority. The vote on Tuesday was widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership and his handling of the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the war on Gaza that followed.

Channel 12 projected that the Netanyahu bloc would win 52 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, while the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot's Yashar party was projected at 49. Channel 13 earlier indicated a tie, with each bloc at 51 seats. Both channels projected Netanyahu's Likud as the largest single party, with an estimated 27 seats against 21 for Yashar. Arab parties were projected to win 19 seats combined, building on their 2022 showing.

Exit polls are unofficial indicators released by the major television networks, and preliminary official results, expected on Wednesday, may differ from them. Israelis vote for parties, which then negotiate alliances to form a coalition, and no single party has ever won the 61 seats needed for a majority.

Eisenkot told supporters at Yashar headquarters that the public had voted for change. "The old era is over, and Israel is starting a new era," he said. Netanyahu countered that Likud is dominant and called for a "national right-wing government," saying the right bloc has "a decisive majority." He also accused Israeli television channels of trying to discourage his supporters by projecting stronger results for the opposition.

Other leaders also weighed in. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said his party was projected to win seven seats and vowed to continue expanding Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir praised the performance of his Otzma Yehudit party. Democrats leader Yair Golan said voters had "fired the Netanyahu government," and Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas, whose party was projected to win around seven seats, said he hoped final results would give the opposition bloc and his party the 61 seats needed.

Turnout reached 77.7 percent of eligible voters, according to the Central Elections Committee, the highest since 1999 and up 7.1 percentage points from 2022. Israel's military said turnout among soldiers had passed 68 percent by 5pm local time, and more than 60,000 Israelis returned from abroad to vote. Polling stations closed at 10pm, with anyone already in line allowed to cast a ballot.

Arab party leaders accused Netanyahu of inciting hatred against Palestinian citizens of Israel to boost his chances. In posts on X on Tuesday, Netanyahu described Arab voters as "Muslim Brotherhood supporters" and accused them of "raiding the polling stations and stealing the elections." Yousef Jabareen of the Joint List said Netanyahu knew Arab voters "can put an end to his bloody reign," while Abbas called the remarks a "scare tactic to mobilise right-wing voters."

Coalition talks are expected to begin immediately once the vote is finalised. President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders and then nominate the candidate he believes is best placed to form a government, who will have up to 42 days to do so. If none emerges, Netanyahu and his cabinet remain in a caretaker capacity, and failed negotiations would lead to new elections. The final tally is expected by Friday, with official results published on November 4.