Ballon d'Or race tightens in London

The 2026 Ballon d'Or winner will be named at the London Palladium on Sunday.

Three players stand out in the race: Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe, and Harry Kane. Yamal, the 19-year-old Barcelona winger, and Mbappe, the French forward, have publicly campaigned for the prize. Kane, the England striker, has remained more reserved despite a prolific scoring run.

Forecasts vary on the likely outcome. Avisia, a French data firm, rates Yamal as the favorite with a 23 percent probability. Kane follows at 21 percent, while Mbappe sits at 19 percent, tied with 2024 winner Rodri. Lionel Messi holds an 18 percent chance of a ninth title. Bookmakers see the field differently, listing Kane as the outright favorite at approximately 70 percent.

Support from peers splits the field. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone favors Messi, stating that the Argentine's post-World Cup performance at age 38 places him in a different league. Jude Bellingham supports Kane, calling him honest and hard-working. Anthony Gordon backs Yamal, describing him as on a whole other level. Real Madrid teammate Aurelien Tchouameni cites Mbappe's incredible season as his reason for support.

Statistical records offer mixed arguments. Mbappe leads in goals, topping La Liga with 25 and the Champions League with 15. He also set a World Cup record with 12 goals. Kane scored 73 goals last season, the highest total by any player since Messi in 2011-12. However, trophy counts complicate their cases. Mbappe won no major honors, while Kane won the Bundesliga but finished third at the World Cup.

Yamal has the strongest trophy record, winning the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona. This aligns with historical trends, as only four of the last 19 winners failed to take major silverware. A win for Yamal would make him the youngest recipient, breaking the record held by Brazil's Ronaldo, who was 21 in 1997.

The ceremony takes place Sunday at the London Palladium.