CFP Projection: SEC Logjam and Weekend Upsets Leave Final Playoff Spots Unclear

The College Football Playoff picture has grown murkier heading into November. A projection published on Oct. 27 by CBS Sports says two weeks of big upsets have made it hard to tell which teams are truly strong, and the selection committee faces a tough job when it releases its first rankings next week.

The SEC is the biggest source of confusion. This week's Associated Press poll has Georgia at No. 3, then four SEC teams from No. 9 to No. 12 and three more from No. 15 to No. 17. Injuries to top players and a steady stream of upsets have made the league a demolition derby. The projection says the SEC is still well-positioned to land four playoff teams, with a likely range of three to five. Expect debates over three-loss SEC teams versus two-loss teams from other conferences, though a new strength-of-conference metric could help the SEC if it gets serious consideration.

The Big Ten looks top-heavy. Ohio State and Indiana are very likely to make the field, and undefeated UCLA would join them by winning 11 or 12 games. Beyond that, few obvious contenders remain. Three-loss Oregon is all but out at 5% odds, Northwestern sits at 15.8% and Nebraska at 12.4%, and both would likely need to upset Ohio State. USC and Iowa have faded. The likely range is two to three bids.

The ACC may again send only Miami, unless 6-1 Wake Forest gets in by winning out, which would include a victory over SMU. The Mustangs are a dark-horse candidate because Notre Dame and Wake Forest remain on their schedule. In the Big 12, BYU and Texas Tech both lost to unranked opponents last weekend, hurting the league's hopes of multiple bids. Utah and BYU have strong enough resumes for now, though their strength-of-schedule rankings of No. 87 and No. 72 could come up in debate.

In the projected top four, Miami is No. 1 at 7-0 as ACC champion after a 52-23 win over Pittsburgh, with 98.2% playoff odds. Georgia is No. 2 as SEC champion despite a shocking home loss to Auburn, and gets a bye week before facing Florida on Saturday. Ohio State is No. 3 as Big Ten champion, though starting quarterback Julian Sayin is out indefinitely and Luke Fahey is expected to start against USC and Oregon. Utah, 7-0, is No. 4 as Big 12 champion, with Cincinnati next, then BYU on Nov. 7 and a trip to a ranked Arizona team.

Indiana, at No. 5, survived a 13-6 win over Michigan in which Josh Hoover threw for 81 yards and an interception, and coach Curt Cignetti admitted he considered benching the banged-up quarterback. The Hoosiers still have 94.8% odds. UCLA is No. 6, and the CBS Sports model gives the Bruins 37.1% odds, 13th best. BYU fell from No. 4 to No. 7 after a double-overtime loss to UCF, dropping its odds to 45% with the game against Utah still ahead.

Kentucky (7-1) is No. 8 and faces Tennessee on Nov. 7. Notre Dame (6-1) is No. 9, and its hopes hinge on games against Miami and SMU. Texas (5-2) is No. 10 with 49% odds but a difficult closing schedule. Ole Miss (5-2) holds the last at-large spot at No. 11 after losing to Texas. Boise State (6-1) is No. 12 as the Group of Six champion and is in if it wins out, helped by James Madison's loss. LSU, Alabama, Wake Forest, Texas Tech and Tennessee just missed.

The projected first round, on Dec. 18 and 19 at higher seeds, has Boise State at Indiana, Ole Miss at UCLA, Texas at BYU and Notre Dame at Kentucky. The quarterfinals run Dec. 30 and Jan. 1, and the semifinals are set for Jan. 14 in Miami and Jan. 15 in New Orleans.